Russia: Migration as a Weapon

Data source: FRONTEX. Chart by Orunmila.

Migrants Are Being Detected on the Eastern Borders

Since war began in February 2022, large and growing numbers of migrants have been detected at Europe's Eastern borders. Interestingly, many are non-European, hinting at Russia using migration as a weapon.

In 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. In the time since, large numbers of migrants have been detected on the “Eastern Borders” route of the EU. The number of migrants detected has more than doubled between 2021 (pre-war) and 2024.(ii) Of interest is the large number of migrants on these routes who are not nationals of Russia/Belarus/Ukraine.

Analysis and Implications

Moscow appears to Be Behind This Flow

Russia has very strict conditions for most nationals entering its territory in terms of visa requirements. Nationals from countries on this list typically would not be allowed into or across Russia unless it suited Russia’s interests.

Large Numbers of Africans Could Hint at Difficulties on Other Routes

The relatively large number of Africans via the Eastern Borders route suggests that in part, greater security on traditional routes into Europe from Africa may be driving Africans to enter via the “backdoor” of Europe.

Instrumentalized Migration Could Be an Extension of “Gray Zone” Tactics

Russia may see instrumentalized migration as a means of provoking and undermining rival countries in the EU/NATO, while remaining beneath the threshold usually considered to be direct aggression, i.e., gray zone.(iv)

The Eastern Borders are Difficult to Police

The length of the border between Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus is vast. This makes it difficult to monitor at all times and, therefore, invites migrants and smugglers to probe for gaps.

Sources

i) Netherlands Institute of International Relations. The instrumentalization of migration: A geopolitical perspective and toolbox. https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2022-12/Report_The_instrumentalization_of_migration.pdf

ii) FRONTEX. Detections of Illegal Border Crossings Statistics. https://www.frontex.europa.eu/what-we-do/monitoring-and-risk-analysis/migratory-map/

iii) Ibid.

iv) RAND Corporation. Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2942.html

Orunmila Research is a consultancy specializing in migration analysis, international affairs, and geopolitical risk. We provide independent, evidence-based, data-driven analysis at the intersection of migration, conflict, and policy. We help governments, NGOs, and institutions understand the deeper, complex drivers behind border movements and instability to allow for a more informed and impactful debate.